Over the last decade, Hungary has transformed from an exemplary post-Cold War democracy to a populist autocracy, and today the only opposition to the right-wing Viktor Orban and his FIDESZ party is the extreme-far right Jobbik. In the last election FIDESZ won almost 45% of the with and Jobbik acquired more than 20%.
Ever since Orban came to power, he has been steadily steering the country towards a so-called “illiberal democracy” naming Turkey and Russia as models. He limited the constitutional court’s powers and the independence of the entire judiciary branch and tightened his control over the news media. Most recently he cracked down on nongovernmental organizations that almost led to the closure of one of the most prominent universities in Budapest.
Worse still, the main opposition party is the neo-nazi, anti-Semitic, far-right ‘The Movement for a Better Hungary’ party with its paramilitary wing. Jobbik’s policies include a referendum on Hungary’s membership of the EU and giving Hungarian communities living in neighbouring countries a comprehensive territorial autonomy. They also reject "global capitalism", European integration and Zionism.
Both parties have gained significant support when Hungary became the centre of the refugee crisis in 2015 - they recognized voters’ fear and capitalised on it.
“Society is scared of the unknown,” says Andras Szakacs, political scientist at the Centre for Fair Political Analysis “They do not have experience with integration and their experience with assimilation is fading too. During the refugee crisis, society got into a situation which they could not handle because they did not have enough experience or knowledge about it.”
However, the main question is whether the far-right can maintain their popularity and what changes they have to make in order to do defeat FIDESZ in the 2018 elections.
“The question is how long this ‘we are the first’ attitude can go on,’ says Andras Gero, Professor of History at the Central European University in Budapest. “If they want to be successful, they will have to put themselves in the center and provide alternatives.”
At the moment, FIDESZ has a 25% lead in opinion polls with 45% and Jobbik is in the second place with 20% neck-to-neck with MSZP, a socialist party. But, Mr Szakacs stresses that, in Hungary, the emphasis is not on ideologies anymore - people simply want their questions answered.
‘Those political parties who are capable to satisfy the needs of society have a future. If JOBBIK is capable for it, then they have. But if a moderate party is capable to enter where the government has pulled out of, then the current situation could change. The emphasis is on satisfying needs, and sometimes the ideology it is associated with it is only secondary.’
